Projections: extreme sea level at the European coastline. PASADENA, Calif. (AP) — A newly launched European-U.S. satellite designed to continue a decades-long record of tracking global sea levels has sent back its … The map allows users to choose between the leading sea level rise models and incorporate the most accurate elevation data available. 66 % probability) in the range of 0.28–0.61 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.52–0.98 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Sea level rise may also change extreme water levels by altering the tidal range and local wave climate. Process-based models estimate the rise in GMSL for the period 2081–2100, compared with 1986–2005, to be likely in the range of 0.26–0.54 m for RCP2.6, 0.32–0.62 m for RCP4.5, 0.33–0.62 m for RCP6.0 and 0.45–0.81 m for RCP8.5. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’, inClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. The best known coastal flooding event in Europe in living memory occurred in 1953 when a combination of a severe storm surge and a high spring tide caused in excess of 2 000 deaths in Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and damaged or destroyed more than 40 000 buildings. Note: DECISION No 1386/2013/EU OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 November 2013 on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The current research evidence suggests that projected increases in extreme sea level along the European coast during the upcoming decades will mostly be the result of mean sea level changes [vii]. If you have forgotten your password, Rising sea levels can also cause salt-water intrusion into low-lying aquifers, thus threatening water supplies and endangering coastal ecosystems and wetlands. Tidal behaviour is particularly responsive in resonant areas of the Bristol Channel and the Gulf of Saint-Malo and in the south-eastern German Bight and Dutch Wadden Sea [ix]. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency, This European Environment Agency (EEA) report the local sea level relative to land averaged over a year or so), changes in tidal range, changes in the local wave climate or changes in storm surge characteristics. EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, indicative roadmap for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy, Climate-ADAPT: Adaptation in EU policy sectors. Furthermore, disintegrating land-ice affects sea level differentially because of gravitational effects and the viscoelastic response of the lithosphere [xviii]. Future projections of extreme sea level can be made using either process-based (dynamic) or empirical statistical modelling of storm surge behaviour driven by the output of global climate models [v]. The mean sea level evolution estimated in the global ocean is derived from the average of the gridded sea level maps weighted by the cosine of the latitude. The EEA is an agency of the European Union, Other Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised immediately, sea level would continue to rise for many centuries. 4 (April 2014): 292–99, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2161; Robert M. DeConto and David Pollard, ‘Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea-Level Rise’,Nature 531, no. The indicator also addresses changes in extreme sea level along the European coast. Global sea level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission. In general, projected increases in coastal flooding are predominantly or entirely due to this sea level rise, rather than changes in storm surges (Humphrey and Murphy 2016) or large-scale weather patterns, though there are regional variations (e.g. A. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. Additional water is added to the ocean from a net mass loss of glaciers and small ice caps, and from the large Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Several recent model-based studies, expert assessments and national assessments have suggested an upper bound for 21st century global mean sea level rise in the range of 1.5–2.5 m. A recent study extending the IPCC AR5 projections estimates global sea level rise by 2300 to be in the range of 0.8–1.4 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 3.4–6.8 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). This is an area where current scientific understanding is advancing quickly, as climate model representations of aspects of Northern Hemisphere storm track behaviour are showing improvements associated with, for instance, greater ocean and atmosphere resolution. [xx] Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’; HELCOM, ‘Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area — HELCOM Thematic Assessment in 2013’, Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings (Helsinki: HELCOM, 2013), http://helcom.fi/Lists/Publications/BSEP137.pdf; A. [xix] Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’; Luke P. Jackson and Svetlana Jevrejeva, ‘A Probabilistic Approach to 21st Century Regional Sea-Level Projections Using RCP and High-End Scenarios’,Global and Planetary Change 146 (November 2016): 179–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.006. [xxi] A Grinsted et al., ‘Sea Level Rise Projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5’,Climate Research 64, no. Figure 3 shows linear trends in relative sea level from 1970 to 2015 as observed by tide gauge stations in Europe. ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet’s ecological limits. it examines the increasingly rapid changes that are Changes in water density are not expected to be spatially uniform, and changes in ocean circulation also have regionally different impacts. Data for other grid cells partly covered by land and by sea were extrapolated using the nearest-neighbour method. It was relaunched in early 2019 with a new design and updated content. Further contributions may come from changes in the storage of liquid water on land, either in natural reservoirs such as groundwater or man-made reservoirs. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. [vi] J. M. Johansson et al., ‘Continuous GPS Measurements of Postglacial Adjustment in Fennoscandia 1. Global and European sea level (2017) Description. In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. A 10 cm rise in sea level typically causes an increase by about a factor of three in the frequency of flooding to a given height. Typically, the highest water levels are found on the rising limb of the tide. Sea level rise, https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6, European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet), Biodiversity Information System for Europe, European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register, Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring, Marine Water Information System for Europe, Fresh Water Information System for Europe. These studies project an increase in storm surge level for most scenarios and return periods along the northern European coastline, which can exceed 30 % of the relative sea level rise under the RCP8.5 scenario. The rise in sea level relative to land along most European coasts is projected to be similar to the global average, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. Changes in the climatology of extreme water levels (i.e. [i] J. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. Most of this rise can be attributed to the increase in temperature of the sea and the resulting slight thermal expansion of the upper 500 metres (1,640 feet) of sea water. Where the flood frequency curve is very flat, modest increases in flood defences might be sufficient. This package consists of the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. Large changes in flood frequency mean that what is an extreme event today may become the norm by the end of the century in some locations. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. Projections for relative mean sea level in Europe consider the gravitational and solid Earth response and land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment, but not land subsidence as a result of human activities. A recent review of extreme sea level trends along European coasts concluded that long-term trends are mostly associated with the corresponding mean sea level changes. A broad expert assessment of future sea level rise resulted in higher estimates than those from the process-based models reviewed in the AR5. The average sea level rise predicted by the IPCC, the United Nations body for assessing climate change, is 0.43 metres by the end of the 21st century, and it … [ix] M.D. The contributions from ice sheets include contributions from ice-sheet rapid dynamical change. Climate-ADAPT was developed jointly by the European Commission and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies. Producing a clear picture of either past changes or future projections of extreme high water levels for the entire European coastline is a challenging task because of the impact of local topographical features on surge events. (2017): A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data, Global mean sea level reconstruction (satellite and altimetre, CSIRO), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5, 20 Dec 2016 - [v] Jason A. Lowe et al., ‘Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves’, inUnderstanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability, ed. Changes in global average sea levels result from a combination of several physical processes. This map shows the estimated multiplication factor, by which the frequency of flooding events of a given height changes between 2010 and 2100 due to projected regional sea relative level rise under the RCP4.5 scenario. Note: B8 (10 August 2002): 2157, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000400. Church et al. Projections for global mean sea level rise and its contributions in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 from process-based models for the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and emisions scenario SRES A1B used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. (2019): Product User Manual – Sea Level Ocean Monitoring Indicators. [vii] Weisse et al., ‘Changing Extreme Sea Levels along European Coasts’; Michalis I. Vousdoukas et al., ‘Extreme Sea Levels on the Rise along Europe’s Coasts’,Earth’s Future 5, no. The most obvious impact of extreme sea level is flooding. At any particular location there may also be a vertical movement of the land in either direction, for example due to the post-glacial rebound (in northern Europe) or to local groundwater extraction. T. F. Stocker et al. Higher flood levels increase the risk to life and property, including to sea dikes and other infrastructure, with potential impacts on tourism, recreation and transportation functions. The thermal expansion of the oceans occurs as a result of warming ocean water. projected change in global sea level for three different forcing scenarios; Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a safe and sustainable global society.’, Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored, Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies. This report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. The potential impacts from coastal flooding can be substantially reduced by timely adaptation measures, but they are associated with significant costs [xiii]. Even a small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it! The value of the Antarctic contribution is the individual component with the largest uncertainty. Change in the frequency of flooding events under projected sea level rise, Note: By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change. [xiii] M. Mokrech et al., ‘An Integrated Approach for Assessing Flood Impacts Due to Future Climate and Socio-Economic Conditions and the Scope of Adaptation in Europe’,Climatic Change 128, no. Holgate et al. Making regional projections for relatively small isolated and semi-closed ocean basins, such as the Mediterranean or the Baltic, is even more difficult than for the open ocean. Coastal storms and storm surges can also have considerable ecological impacts, such as seabird wrecks, disruption to seal mating and pupping, and increases in large mammal and turtle strandings. 21 Nov 2017 - Trend in absolute sea level across Europe based on satellite measurements, Note: (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 1137–1216, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf; J. R. Hunter et al., ‘Towards a Global Regionally Varying Allowance for Sea-Level Rise’,Ocean Engineering, Sea Level Rise and Impacts on Engineering Practice, 71 (Oktober 2013): 17–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2012.12.041. [iii] Isabel B. Araújo and David T. Pugh, ‘Sea Levels at Newlyn 1915–2005: Analysis of Trends for Future Flooding Risks’,Journal of Coastal Research 24 (July 2008): 203–12, https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0785.1; Ivan Haigh, Robert Nicholls, and Neil Wells, ‘Assessing Changes in Extreme Sea Levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900–2006’,Continental Shelf Research 30, no. Concentrations were stabilised immediately, sea level to be done to prepare vulnerable regions and sectors models and the! Since 1880 as described in the climatology of extreme sea level along the European,... 6274 ( 12 February 2016 ): 2495–2524, https: //doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0148.1 even if gas! Small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it was relaunched in early with... % of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its impacts on settlements,,! Be done to prepare vulnerable regions and sectors policies at all levels looks... 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